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The development trend of the automotive industry in the next 5 years

5 years later,there will be 3 threats to the automotive industry. The degree of disruption of internal combustion engine will be as Nokia and BlackBerry when Apple introduced the iPhone.
As autonomous electric vehicles developing,shared travel services will develop. There will be two trends, consumers will begin to reduce their car ownership.The increasing number of low-cost robotic taxis,the number of drivers of the next generation will be reduced.
The "combination boxing" of electric vehicles and self-driving cars will cause serious damage to the global automobile value chain. Every source of profit for traditional car dealers will experience a structural decline, including new car sales, auto finance, repairs and maintenance.

Traditional automakers face the risk of becoming a contract manufacturing company like Foxconn: they can only supply hardware, while new innovators run their businesses, dominate the market, own customers and get high returns.

The self-driving car network will gradually expand from the city center to the suburbs and villages. As the fleet and shared travel service companies become the main buyers of the car, the traditional dealer model faces the threat of subversion.

The rise of autonomous vehicles will in particular create a huge disruption to the trucking and logistics industry, with millions of trucks, taxi drivers and distribution posts maybe disappear gradually. The first companies to adopt autonomous vehicles will build cost advantages that will help them gain market share from other freight and even rail transport companies.


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